Roofing contractors and suppliers have weathered multiple challenges so far in 2025. But they may find the year ahead presents even more issues to cope with, stemming from policy upheavals affecting tariffs, foreign-born workers, and demand for various project types.
Near-constant changes in announced, suspended, and modified tariffs have greatly complicated bid pricing and caused many owners to defer or cancel projects. Tariffs do more than drive up the cost of construction materials, whether imported or competing with imports. Tariffs make many domestically produced final products more expensive, rendering them less competitive. Moreover, owners may be hit with retaliatory countermeasures by their foreign customers or find foreign visitors/students/workers are no longer coming to the U.S. in sufficient numbers to warrant building new or expanded structures.
Roofing companies have been in the crosshairs of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials at least since early April, when the Seattle Times reported they raided a roofing warehouse in Bellingham, Washington and arrested 37 people. Since then, ICE has also gone after jobsites and day-laborer pickup points, such as Home Depot parking lots.
The tax and spending bill that President Trump signed on July 4 funds a huge increase in outlays for border enforcement, ICE activity, and detention facilities. There is no indication that roofing businesses are being singled out but they are a visible and obvious target, partly because of a high prevalence of foreign-born workers. An analysis by the National Association of Home Builders of the Census Bureau’s 2023 American Community Survey found that 52% of roofers were foreign-born. That was nearly triple the 18% immigrant share of all workers. (The survey does not ask about legal status.)
In addition to the immediate disruption caused by raids, the tightening of immigration has negative implications for the industry. The Census Bureau estimated last December that 84% of the nation’s population growth between July 2023 and July 2024 was the result of immigration (net of emigration) over that span. Data covering the first part of 2025 appear to indicate net immigration this year is flat or even negative, meaning more people are leaving the United States (voluntarily, forcibly, or to avoid deportation) than entering. That suggests employers in industries that rely heavily on immigrants to replace workers who retire, change occupations, or leave the country will have an even harder time in the year ahead filling jobs.
Likely changes in demand by structure type present roofing contractors with a more nuanced outlook. On the positive side of the ledger, demand for data centers, with their vast flat roofs, remains robust. There are also hints that multifamily construction, which cooled rapidly in 2024 and early 2025, may pick up soon. The Census Bureau reported on July 18 that the number of multifamily units (in buildings with five or more units) that started construction in the first five months of 2025 jumped 16% compared to January-May 2024.
However, the outlook is bleaker for single-family construction. The number of single-family starts declined 7% during the same period, with single-family permits—a generally reliable predictor of near-term starts—down 5.5%.
Forward-looking indicators for nonresidential building categories are also mixed. On July 21, construction service provider ConstructConnect reported that the value (not units or square footage) of nonresidential building starts climbed 11.5% in the first six months of 2025 compared to January-June 2024. The firm reported a 77% leap in the value of industrial (manufacturing) starts and a 4% gain in commercial starts but a 4% decline in institutional starts.
The following day, data provider Dodge Construction Network reported that its own database of project starts showed a 6% year-to-date increase through June in the value of nonresidential building starts. Combined commercial and industrial starts were up 9% year-to-date and institutional starts were 3% higher.
Offsetting largely partially positive outlooks, the American Institute of Architects found more of its member firms reported declining billings between May and June than reported higher billings. The institute breaks out results for firms with predominantly commercial/industrial, institutional, and (high-end multifamily) residential practices. For commercial/industrial and residential specialties, declining-revenue firms have outnumbered rising-revenue firms every month since August 2022. Institutional practices have fared only a tad better, with just two months that showed slightly net positive readings since July 2023.
In short, roofing contractors and their suppliers will face plenty of challenges in the coming months. They should not expect demand to go through the you-know-what.
